Monthly reflections on being an economist

This month feels like a bit of a milestone for me —not because of the dramatic changes in the macro environment, but because I’ve started sharing how I think about it more openly.

If you had told me a year ago that I’d be launching a website and hosting mentoring sessions, I probably would have said:

“That sounds great… but let me just update my growth and inflation forecasts first.”

And yet—here we are.

(Even though this is something my husband told me to start doing five years ago!)

Over the past few weeks, I’ve launched my website as a space to think through economics, and especially the role of economists, in a more practical, real-time way.

Less about having the “perfect” view, and more about how we navigate uncertainty—because in economics, that’s the constant.

Right now, I keep coming back to how uncomfortable the current macro environment is to interpret. Not because there’s no information—but because there’s too much of it, pointing in different directions.

Globally, we’re still dealing with extreme geopolitical change, volatile political regimes, policy divergences, and shifting expectations around how this all impacts the macroeconomic outlook.

Locally, South Africa’s story continues to sit somewhere between slow-but-steady structural improvement and frustratingly uncertain short-term data against an equally frustratingly uncertain global backdrop

The temptation is always to simplify the narrative. But increasingly, I think the better approach is to hold multiple scenarios at once—and be clear about what would shift your view.

We’ve hosted two mentoring sessions so far with guest contributors, and one idea has stood out more than anything else: how we make decisions when visibility is low.

In the first session, we spent time on what I do in my current role as a macroeconomist in a global investment bank, comparing this to what other types of roles economists can take. We addressed decision-making under uncertainty—not just forecasting outcomes, but thinking about forecasts when the range of outcomes is wide.

In the second session, our guest, Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economists and AgBiz and Presidential Envoy and Advisor, revealed his path to a specialised sector economist, focusing on agriculture. The conversation led us to highlight how important it is to market yourself in order to expand your readership, brand and network. You have to take chances, show up and put yourself out there. Wandile and I also discussed structural versus cyclical change which reinforced something I’ve believed for a while: some of South Africa’s most important political, policy and economic shifts are slow, uneven, and easy to miss if you’re only watching the next data print.

Personally, these sessions have been a reminder that macro is as much about experience and judgement as it is about data.

Whatever economics topic you’re analyzing or writing about right now, it’s worth asking: what in your base case is structural, and what is cyclical?

It’s also important to realise the value of scenario analysis when incoming data is highly uncertain and the outlook is particularly uncertain.

Both distinctions are often where the real edge lies.

Putting something like this out into the world is daunting at first, but immediately incredibly energising. To sit with a group of young professionals is humbling as you look back to describe your journey, highlighting the highs and lows, and lessons learnt.

My aim with this newsletter (and the sessions alongside it) is to create a space that feels insightful, practical, and human. A place where we can think seriously about macro without taking ourselves too seriously, while learning from others as how they shape their roles as economists or roles as professionals that interact closely with economists. .

If that sounds like your kind of conversation, you’re very welcome to be part of it. If you’d like to explore more—or join an upcoming mentoring session—you can find everything here:

https://gina-schoeman.com/